Protest Parties

After two live TV debates between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage, the instant poll gave Farage a resounding victory with 69% to Clegg's 31%. You may loathe UKIP and their leader, you may believe their party members contain a worrying number of oddballs, cranks and racists, but you cannot deny that Farage and co. are upsetting the cosy Westminster consensus. Relax, this blog is not going to sing the praises of UKIP, there are enough pub bores across the land, who own every Top Gear DVD and book by Richard Littlejohn, to rant about Britain being swamped and PC gawn mad.

But the growth of a protest party from a fringe group to 12% support in the opinion polls has changed the dynamic of the upcoming election. On current trends, it seems likely the Tory party will lose and Labour could gain a slender majority. With the economy returning to strong growth, the deficit and unemployment down, these trends ought to benefit the government.
Historically, the British electorate has tended to adopt a 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' mode of voting. Coalition politics does complicate matters, yet the basic pattern has been that the main party in power ought to benefit from positive economic news. Instead, the Conservatives' poll ratings remain stubbornly low at 32%.

The strange thing about the UKIP phenomenon is that it has improved Ed Miliband's chances of winning the election. I know, ridiculous isn't it? Miliband is by far the worse Labour leader of modern times, making Michael Foot seem positively statesmanlike. The party is being lead by the human equivalent of quiche and not even a tasty quiche either. In my mind, he's a broccoli flavoured- something nobody willingly orders unless, for example, they are a vegetarian and it is the only menu option. So your average UKIP voter, who ought to be on the right-wing fringe of the Tory party, would rather vote UKIP, split the Tory vote and increase Labour's chances of winning. Perhaps most people don't make these kind of calculations, but if you are sufficiently anti-EU and anti-immigration to consider voting UKIP, you must also be aware that Labour and the Lib-Dems are pro-Europeans.

In effect, UKIP voters are self-harming which begs the question why? One possible answer is that aren't very bright. Judging by some of their candidates and voters, that's possibly true. However they can't all be idiots. I suppose it's possible, but it's more likely that their ranks include rational, intelligent individuals, than the stupidest 12% of the population. People that dense probably haven't heard of the EU and even if they have, they think it's something you catch from loo seats (hang on, that could include UKIP voters). Anyway, you get the point.

I think the answer for UKIP's rise lies in the style of modern politics and in particular David Cameron's approach to government. Ask many people who you would rather have a drink with, Cameron or Farage and I reckon most, including left-wingers, would say Farage. If Miliband is a human quiche,  Cameron is the physical embodiment of a Coldplay song. Inoffensive background music that excites little emotion good or bad. If he were a colour, it would be fawn. Yet he manages to combine the essence of fawn, with a curious lack of awareness of the wider world.

Filling your cabinet with Old Etonians and public school boys looks wrong to the vast majority of people not born into privilege. Refusing to participate in a live debate in Farage plays badly. Rejecting an electorate pact with UKIP, where will not field candidates against Eurosceptic candidates is perverse. Put simply, he does not have the common touch or seem to understand that it's necessary. Margaret Thatcher, with her huge coiffeur, twin set and pearls, was hardly a natural working class hero. Nonetheless she seemed to speak a language that resonated with many.

If Cameron, Clegg or Miliband want to combat the rise of the protest vote, they need to start talking and acting like human beings, not automata. We don't need our leaders to be average, we do need them to have a pulse and minds of their own. Say what you like about Farage, he's not bland. And there will be more Farages to follow if the Westminster elite does not change their ways.