Wednesday 17 August 2011

Debt Monster

Every week that sails by, the Western economies sink deeper and deeper into debt, with one exception, Germany, who foolishly based its economic growth on high-end manufacturing rather than house prices and hedge funds.  American superpower is revealed to be less stable than a house of cards in an epileptic's house in an earthquake zone.  The USA's political journey is from super state  to supergimp; its recent political paralysis much like Superman neutralised by kryptonite, a toxic, alien substance, in this case known as the Tea Party. And remember when Superman loses his powers thanks to kryptonite; then he's a just a strange man wearing his underpants on the outside of a lyrca bodysuit. Next thing you know he's chaining himself to railings outside the Family Court, howling that the bitch won't let him see the kids.

We are all collectively drowning in debt, most of it owed to the Chinese. They have such vast foreign reserves that they could buy Italy; or alternatively Portugal and Spain with Ireland thrown in as a three for two deal. I'm not sure exactly what the Chinese would do with Italy, but if they start installing a monorail into the hollowed out base of Mount Vesuvius we should be worried.

Individually Britons are in saddled with debt. Our corporations are loaded down with debt, the public sector is infested with PFI contracts (which is just another way of saying debt, plus loan shark mark-ups for the consultants involved), not forgetting the Treasury which is borrowing so much that I think our grandchildren will have to work until they are 85 to collect a state pension. It will still be £5000, but thanks to compound interest only buys half a Curly Wurly.

Now there's no point asking most economists for help, they failed to spot the last recession and still cannot explain how it's possible that the UK has undergone the longest ever boom in its economic history and everyone is flat broke. Perhaps you have to do a Masters to figure that one out. But one very smart economist, Nouriel Roubini, one of the very few who predicted the 2008 crash and the current second round of calamities has a heretical idea: debt default.

Without debt default or to use the acceptable term 'restructuring', how are going to slay the debt monster? St George Osborne's brilliant plan for recovery is that we should all take a huge hit in the standard of living so that no one in the banking industry takes a loss on their crappy loans. I think the debt dragon is going to win this encounter with our noble knight Osborne, because quite frankly, what is the point of us working hard, setting up new enterprises so that we can bail out some moronic, borderline criminal investment that RBS made on Irish property or American subprime mortgages. Seriously, what is the point? I would rather bang my head against a brick wall, ideally a wall made of bricks baked with the blood of dead bankers.

If the UK were a person, we would go bankrupt, renegotiate our terms and bounce back. It's worked for Donald Trump and countless other enterpreneurs.  In Trump's case that is in spite of a hairpiece that defies both the laws of fashion and physics.  I don't know about you lot, but the idea of working for the next 30 years so Bob Diamond and his peers don't suffer a loss on their loan books and their precious bonuses, isn't like being on a treadmill:  it's a treadmill that's going backwards down a hill whilst you're being pickpocketed.

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